What belongs in this quarter’s forecast?
Rebuild the Q4 view, then explain why the cumulative columns cannot be added.
“Their defense must be backed by actual customer signals.” (opens the source)
The question
Alder Relay is a fictional B2B subscription-software company with Boston and London teams. This is an interview case, using an authored packet rather than a real CRM export.
| Category | Value ($000) | Close period | |
|---|---|---|---|
| W | Closed | 100 | Q4 2026 |
| A | Commit | 120 | Q4 2026 |
| B | Commit | 80 | Q1 2027 |
| C | Best Case | 70 | Q4 2026 |
| D | Pipeline | 90 | Q4 2026 |
| E | Omitted | 40 | Q4 2026 |
| A again | Commit | 120 | Q4 2026 |
Snapshot November 6, 2026 at 17:00 UTC. First-year contract value in USD. A again is a duplicate export row with the same opportunity ID as A. Target: $400k Q4. This is not cash collected or accounting revenue.
“State the measure, the evidence and the next owner.”
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A strong answer, step by step
Open each step in turn. This is one strong answer, not the only one.
Step 1: Reconcile the records
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Apply ID, period and category rules
The strong move. Every exclusion must be traceable to an ID and rule.
Include B because it is marked Commit
Tempting, but it misses something. Commit does not override the stated Q4 reporting period.
See how a strong candidate says it
“The raw rows total $620k. Remove duplicate A ($120k), Omitted E ($40k) and next-quarter B ($80k): $380k remains across Closed plus all eligible open deals.”
Why it works: Every exclusion must be traceable to an ID and rule.
Step 2: Separate the single categories
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Keep categories separate
The strong move. Open Pipeline excludes Closed.
Call $380k Open Pipeline
Tempting, but it misses something. That total includes the $100k already closed.
See how a strong candidate says it
“Closed is $100k, Commit $120k, Best Case $70k and Pipeline $90k. Open value is $280k.”
Why it works: Open Pipeline excludes Closed.
Step 3: Read cumulative columns correctly
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Use the column that answers the question
The strong move. Cumulative columns overlap by design.
Add all cumulative columns
Tempting, but it misses something. Their records overlap, so the sum is not a distinct total.
See how a strong candidate says it
“Closed Only is $100k; Commit Forecast $220k; Best Case Forecast $290k; Open Pipeline $280k. Their sum, $890k, counts deals more than once.”
Why it works: Cumulative columns overlap by design.
Step 4: Explain the target and evidence
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Review evidence on eligible open deals
The strong move. Category totals are not probabilities or guarantees.
Raise probabilities to make the target
Tempting, but it misses something. Changing a label or probability does not create customer commitment.
See how a strong candidate says it
“The $400k target has $300k remaining after closed wins. Open coverage is $280k/$300k = 0.9333×. I would verify customer evidence and dates before proposing a change.”
Why it works: Category totals are not probabilities or guarantees.
The answer, in short
- Decision
- The Q4 view contains $380k across closed and eligible open deals.
- Because
- Open Pipeline alone is $280k; cumulative columns overlap.
- What would change it
- Verified changes to dates, values or buyer commitment could change the forecast.
Common traps
- Commit does not override the stated Q4 reporting period.
Check your answer
- I removed the duplicate and out-of-period rows.
- I separated open from closed.
- I did not add cumulative columns.
- I checked evidence before changing a category.
Last reviewed Nov 10, 2026